Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3919 at 01:06, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 3919 MCO 01:06 → IAH 03:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1872 MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3919 United	MCO 01:06	IAH 03:01	5%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	6%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	11%	3%	0.9%	88%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	12%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:14	IAH 17:10	20%	6%	1.3%	89%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	21%	6%	1.2%	87%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:46	IAH 15:19	22%	8%	1.8%	87%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:30	IAH 21:13	35%	16%	3.2%	76%worse than usual
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	36%	15%	1.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON