Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2862 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2862 MCO 06:29 → LAS 08:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2598 MCO 17:04 → LAS 19:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2862 Southwest	MCO 06:29	LAS 08:17	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2597 Southwest	MCO 06:56	LAS 08:53	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
F9 1875 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:06	LAS 08:05	7%	3%	1.2%	90%
B6 2821 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAS 11:54	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
WN 2598 Southwest	MCO 17:04	LAS 19:00	22%	6%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 01m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	6h 55m	97%	88%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:39 → LAS 09:40AA 1550	7h 10m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON