Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1573 at 07:00, 5%.

Safest bet that day DL 1573 MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 902 MCO 18:01 → LGA 20:44 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	5%	2%	1.3%	91%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	11%	3%	1.3%	84%
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:16	LGA 14:04	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:01	LGA 16:46	20%	6%	1.8%	76%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	22%	7%	1.8%	72%
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:17	LGA 17:01	25%	7%	1.8%	78%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:42	LGA 17:26	27%	7%	1.6%	73%
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 19:57	LGA 22:30	35%	14%	2.7%	no record
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	36%	13%	2.7%	60%
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:01	LGA 20:44	39%	14%	3.2%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON