Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 359 at 07:43, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 359 MCO 07:43 → MDW 09:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 679 MCO 17:22 → MDW 19:09 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 359 Southwest	MCO 07:43	MDW 09:33	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 290 Southwest	MCO 10:29	MDW 12:11	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4644 Southwest	MCO 13:10	MDW 14:51	17%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1429 Southwest	MCO 19:49	MDW 21:35	37%	12%	2.2%	no record
WN 106 Southwest	MCO 17:00	MDW 18:45	41%	10%	2.2%	no record
WN 679 Southwest	MCO 17:22	MDW 19:09	41%	10%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON