Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4802 at 10:14, 12%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4802 Southwest	MCO 10:14	MHT 13:09	12%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2146 Southwest	MCO 19:24	MHT 22:15	46%	20%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 05:48 → CLT 07:35AA 2127	52m Charlotte	CLT 08:27 → MHT 10:43AA 5661 · flown by PSA	4h 55m	94%	82%
American Details →	MCO 15:47 → ORD 17:49AA 3031	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → MHT 23:30AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	7h 43m	88%	77%
American Details →	MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20AA 2745	54m Washington	DCA 10:14 → MHT 12:03AA 5150 · flown by PSA	5h 06m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON