Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1733 at 07:34, 6%.

Safest bet that day AA 1733 MCO 07:34 → MIA 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1610 MCO 19:41 → MIA 20:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
WN 3860 Southwest	MCO 11:30	MIA 13:09	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 12:14	MIA 13:57	16%	6%	1.2%	88%
WN 180 Southwest	MCO 12:06	MIA 13:03	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 366 American	MCO 12:29	MIA 14:04	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1630 American	MCO 12:54	MIA 14:33	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 3654 Southwest	MCO 21:39	MIA 22:51	26%	10%	2.3%	no record
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:45	MIA 16:56	36%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:41	MIA 20:49	41%	21%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON