Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:58 → OAK 17:44DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	9h 59m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:54 → RDU 17:43DL 1312	3h 49m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 21:32 → OAK 00:04 +1DL 8947	11h 10m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	93%	88%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:21 → HOU 08:35WN 2871	56m Houston	HOU 09:31 → OAK 11:23WN 1981	7h 02m	94%	87%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:59 → LAS 08:19F9 1875	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 10:54 → OAK 12:36F9 2045	9h 37m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON