Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2279 at 06:20, 9%.

Safest bet today AA 2279 MCO 06:20 → ORD 08:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1233 MCO 19:39 → ORD 21:59 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 06:20	ORD 08:29	9%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:12	ORD 09:22	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ORD 11:14	14%	4%	0.4%	92%
AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 07:37	ORD 09:44	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 10:18	ORD 12:28	17%	6%	0.4%	94%worse than usual
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	19%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 1645 American	MCO 11:45	ORD 13:54	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 662 American	MCO 11:34	ORD 13:34	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	25%	8%	0.8%	72%
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:47	ORD 23:01	31%	15%	2.1%	76%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	40%	19%	1.2%	70%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	41%	13%	0.9%	58%
AA 1661 American	MCO 15:40	ORD 17:47	44%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 2845 United	MCO 17:58	ORD 20:08	46%	19%	0.9%	no record
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:49	ORD 17:51	46%	9%	1.2%	64%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:51	ORD 18:57	50%	13%	1.3%	42%
AA 1233 American	MCO 19:39	ORD 21:59	51%	21%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON