Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 17%, against 6% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1112 at 07:21, 6%.

Safest bet that day F9 1112 MCO 07:21 → RDU 09:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 941 MCO 18:41 → RDU 20:27 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1112 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:21	RDU 09:30	6%	3%	1.6%	80%
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	6%	2%	1.2%	88%
F9 1786 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:36	RDU 16:39	16%	8%	1.8%	77%
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:54	RDU 17:43	19%	8%	2.1%	77%
WN 941 Southwest	MCO 18:41	RDU 20:27	39%	14%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON