Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2640 at 10:25, 14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2640 MCO 10:25 → RSW 11:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1268 MCO 18:48 → RSW 19:37 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2640 Southwest	MCO 10:25	RSW 11:20	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 2792 Southwest	MCO 10:40	RSW 11:48	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1268 Southwest	MCO 18:48	RSW 19:37	51%	22%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON