tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3903 at 09:03, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3903 Southwest MCO 09:03 SDF 11:18 9% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 59m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 5h 36m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 7h 18m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 1h 24m New York LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:01 → CLT 08:52AA 1647 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SDF 13:57AA 2816 6h 56m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 37m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 6h 44m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:09 → PHL 18:53AA 3153 1h 51m Philadelphia PHL 20:44 → SDF 22:52AA 4335 · flown by Republic 6h 43m 96% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30UA 1643 47m Newark EWR 18:17 → SDF 20:42UA 3415 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 73% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON