tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 41m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 48m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:50 → CLT 07:37AA 2127 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → TUL 12:47AA 2657 7h 57m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 4h 00m Houston IAH 14:45 → TUL 16:37UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 59m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 2279 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:40 → TUL 11:44AA 4135 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:48 → LGA 13:24DL 1164 3h 34m New York LGA 16:58 → TUL 19:21DL 4630 · flown by Endeavor 9h 33m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:50 → DEN 14:51UA 1520 2h 46m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 8h 37m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 18:52 → ATL 20:54DL 1742 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 5h 27m 68% 59%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 1h 04m Houston IAH 20:02 → TUL 21:54UA 1927 5h 35m 60% 49%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:29 → DFW 17:26AA 1737 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:23 → TUL 19:34AA 531 5h 05m 53% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON