Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1039 at 11:24, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1039 Southwest	MCO 11:24	TYS 13:02	14%	2%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	5h 40m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	5h 43m	99%	90%
American Details →	MCO 07:10 → CLT 08:59AA 1647	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 11:11 → TYS 12:34AA 5953 · flown by Piedmont	5h 24m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	6h 11m	99%	87%
American Details →	MCO 05:50 → CLT 07:37AA 2127	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	4h 48m	98%	85%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:35 → TYS 13:48AA 2544	6h 18m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:49 → TYS 23:50DL 3072	6h 05m	94%	83%
American Details →	MCO 09:30 → DFW 11:24AA 2075	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:22 → TYS 16:38AA 2550	7h 08m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:49 → TYS 23:50DL 3072	3h 55m	73%	65%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	57m Atlanta	ATL 20:44 → TYS 21:49DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor	4h 04m	70%	46%
United Details →	MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872	52m Houston	IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa	5h 53m	63%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON