Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3126 at 18:16, 31%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3126 Southwest	MDW 18:16	JAX 21:26	31%	3%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 45m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 59m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:07 → JAX 19:24DL 2315	5h 43m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → JAX 16:35DL 2720	4h 30m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON