Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2758 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2758 MDW 06:14 → MCO 09:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 491 MDW 18:10 → MCO 21:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	MDW 06:14	MCO 09:42	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 636 Southwest	MDW 08:28	MCO 11:54	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2764 Southwest	MDW 10:02	MCO 13:25	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 376 Southwest	MDW 12:17	MCO 15:42	14%	3%	2.1%	no record
WN 4933 Southwest	MDW 16:29	MCO 19:57	20%	6%	1.8%	no record
WN 491 Southwest	MDW 18:10	MCO 21:38	30%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON