Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 188 MDW 09:52 → PHX 11:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2796 MDW 20:17 → PHX 22:06 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 188 Southwest	MDW 09:52	PHX 11:42	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1181 Southwest	MDW 11:31	PHX 13:10	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 965 Southwest	MDW 16:17	PHX 18:19	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4249 Southwest	MDW 13:55	PHX 15:34	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 454 Southwest	MDW 17:32	PHX 19:28	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2796 Southwest	MDW 20:17	PHX 22:06	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON