tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, OO 3124 at 16:32, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3124 SkyWest MFR 16:32 LAX 18:30 9% 4% 0.7% no record
AS 2329 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record MFR 16:34 LAX 18:35 21% 10% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 12m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 16m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → LAX 20:36UA 1799 6h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → LAX 12:12AA 2027 6h 57m 95% 85%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon 3h 34m Portland PDX 20:24 → LAX 22:24AS 1391 6h 32m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 1h 02m Denver DEN 17:45 → LAX 19:23UA 1753 6h 13m 90% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 46m Portland PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581 4h 22m 87% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 4h 17m 72% 65%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 3h 54m 71% 61%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 19:50 → SEA 21:12AS 2040 · flown by Horizon 55m Seattle SEA 22:07 → LAX 00:18 +1AS 524 4h 28m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON