tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2611 at 13:58, 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2611 Southwest MHT 13:58 MCO 17:01 23% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:03 → CLT 09:38AA 5035 · flown by PSA 1h 06m Charlotte CLT 10:44 → MCO 12:35AA 1576 5h 32m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → MHT 09:25 → IAD 11:19UA 4857 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 5h 33m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10AA 4150 · flown by Envoy 2h 11m Chicago ORD 11:21 → MCO 14:59AA 3293 7h 45m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:35 → PHL 09:14AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 12:51 → MCO 15:23AA 3153 7h 48m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → MHT 11:04 → CLT 13:26AA 5661 · flown by PSA 47m Charlotte CLT 14:13 → MCO 15:50AA 1611 4h 46m 92% 73%
AmericanDetails → MHT 11:53 → DCA 13:44AA 5150 · flown by PSA 3h 18m Washington DCA 17:02 → MCO 19:44AA 1153 7h 51m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → MHT 10:32 → PHL 12:09AA 5976 · flown by Piedmont 1h 58m Philadelphia PHL 14:07 → MCO 16:45AA 2502 6h 13m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → MHT 14:54 → PHL 16:35AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont 3h 26m Philadelphia PHL 20:01 → MCO 22:34AA 1673 7h 40m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 5h 08m 65% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON