Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1153 · DCA → MCO

departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 7:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1153 · DCA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?