AA 1153 · DCA → MCO

took off 11:04 AM ET · expected to land 1:01 PM ET (scheduled 11:00 AM ET → 1:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1153 · DCA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?