Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2592 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2592 MIA 09:09 → BNA 10:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2858 MIA 18:05 → BNA 19:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2592 Southwest	MIA 09:09	BNA 10:26	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4123 Envoy	MIA 08:12	BNA 09:37	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4209 Envoy	MIA 14:37	BNA 16:01	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2833 American Flight history →	MIA 20:03	BNA 21:26	26%	10%	0.9%	65%
WN 2858 Southwest	MIA 18:05	BNA 19:13	33%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON