Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2045 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2045 MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1292 MIA 20:37 → DEN 22:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2045 United Flight history →	MIA 07:37	DEN 10:00	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
F9 1279 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DEN 08:23	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2436 American	MIA 09:54	DEN 12:13	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2852 United Flight history →	MIA 15:44	DEN 18:23	18%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 1292 American	MIA 20:37	DEN 22:53	21%	6%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → DEN 16:11DL 493	6h 06m	81%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON