Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3436 MIA 08:51 → EYW 09:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3438 MIA 18:23 → EYW 19:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3436 Envoy	MIA 08:51	EYW 09:57	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 12:19	EYW 13:32	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
MQ 3562 Envoy	MIA 12:00	EYW 13:06	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3438 Envoy	MIA 18:23	EYW 19:31	13%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON