Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3438 · MIA → EYW
departs 6:23 PM ET · arrives 7:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 15%
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.