MQ 3438 · MIA → EYW

departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

↓ EYW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

EYW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3438 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?