Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2417 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2417 MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2230 MIA 22:15 → IAH 23:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	8%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	11%	5%	0.7%	87%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:55	IAH 14:04	12%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 1347 American	MIA 08:54	IAH 10:45	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:26	IAH 16:16	22%	9%	0.8%	61%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	24%	8%	0.8%	74%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	IAH 23:59	25%	9%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON