Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3897 at 21:58, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3897 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:58	ILM 23:59	14%	5%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	6h 33m	99%	92%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	3h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 13:16 → ILM 15:04AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	8h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 23m	98%	89%
American Details →	MIA 07:50 → CLT 09:56AA 361	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 13:50 → ILM 14:57AA 3066	7h 07m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339	3h 17m New York	LGA 14:33 → ILM 16:19DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	8h 04m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	6h 10m	97%	86%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 21:59 → ILM 23:10AA 2831	7h 09m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	1h 40m New York	LGA 20:25 → ILM 22:12DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor	6h 43m	91%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON