Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 960 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 960 MIA 08:46 → LAX 11:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 996 MIA 15:47 → LAX 18:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:46	LAX 11:21	10%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 11:36	LAX 14:25	15%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:43	LAX 16:14	19%	8%	0.7%	73%
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:55	LAX 00:36	22%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	22%	7%	1.0%	84%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:47	LAX 18:11	25%	9%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	96%	86%
American Details →	MIA 07:37 → PHX 09:37AA 1983	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → LAX 12:12AA 2027	7h 35m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON