Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2566 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2566 MIA 08:51 → MSY 10:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 329 MIA 20:25 → MSY 21:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2566 American	MIA 08:51	MSY 10:10	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3553 Envoy	MIA 15:44	MSY 16:58	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 329 American Flight history →	MIA 20:25	MSY 21:39	26%	10%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON