Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 4310 at 16:31, 27%.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4310 Envoy	MIA 16:31	ORF 18:59	27%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 775 American Flight history →	MIA 21:14	ORF 23:37	30%	10%	1.2%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925	6h 45m	99%	90%
American Details →	MIA 08:56 → JFK 11:56AA 2341	3h 34m New York	JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09AA 4359 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	7h 30m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → ORF 17:12DL 2329	6h 32m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	6h 48m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205	3h 18m New York	LGA 13:17 → ORF 14:51AA 4471 · flown by Republic	7h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:17 → JFK 18:50DL 1514	2h 42m New York	JFK 21:32 → ORF 22:57DL 5326 · flown by Endeavor	7h 40m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387	2h 46m New York	LGA 12:10 → ORF 13:31DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor	7h 06m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	54m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	4h 44m	74%	65%
American Details →	MIA 07:11 → DFW 09:35AA 1454	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:21 → ORF 14:32AA 2282	7h 21m	57%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON