Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4071 at 22:54, 23%.

Nonstops that day


AA 4071 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 22:54	SRQ 23:59	23%	6%	1.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 44m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:56 → SRQ 16:34DL 3115	5h 54m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 45m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:41 → ATL 18:42DL 1323	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	6h 11m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387	1h 04m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	7h 08m	95%	80%
American Details →	MIA 06:26 → CLT 08:38AA 3004	1h 56m Charlotte	CLT 10:34 → SRQ 12:39AA 1452	6h 13m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109	5h 41m	93%	77%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 18:33 → SRQ 20:28AA 5348 · flown by PSA	6h 58m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	4h 52m	68%	57%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 19:25 → SRQ 21:21AA 2604	5h 20m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON