Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3527 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3527 MRY 06:10 → PHX 08:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 6348 MRY 10:04 → PHX 12:09 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3527 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MRY 06:10	PHX 08:12	10%	5%	2.3%	94%
OO 4974 SkyWest	MRY 16:28	PHX 18:29	18%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 10:04	PHX 12:09	23%	10%	1.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON