Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5249 MRY 12:02 → SFO 13:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5502 MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5249 SkyWest	MRY 12:02	SFO 13:16	28%	14%	0.8%	no record
OO 4758 SkyWest	MRY 14:18	SFO 15:10	30%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 5502 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 08:00	SFO 08:56	35%	19%	1.9%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON