Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4112 MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2795 MSO 05:35 → SLC 07:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4112 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 13:15	SLC 14:57	3%	2%	0.5%	95%
OO 148 SkyWest	MSO 18:04	SLC 19:46	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1826 Delta	MSO 05:20	SLC 06:59	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2795 Delta Flight history →	MSO 05:35	SLC 07:06	5%	3%	0.6%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON