Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MSO 14:38	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2610 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:52	MSO 23:44	16%	6%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 09:08 → MSO 11:49UA 2847	6h 49m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:42 → MSO 00:17 +1DL 1824	7h 04m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	92%	87%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 03m Denver	DEN 11:24 → MSO 13:33UA 2357	5h 28m	93%	84%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 58m Seattle	SEA 20:48 → MSO 23:10AS 1435	9h 14m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 10:08 → MSO 12:36AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	7h 33m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON