Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2695 at 12:45, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2695 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MSY 15:25	8%	2%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 17m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → MSY 16:00DL 362	7h 34m	100%	91%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 57m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273	7h 54m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 14:19 → MSY 15:49DL 1652	6h 49m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	7h 17m	99%	90%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:38 → MSY 13:02UA 1532	7h 02m	99%	89%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 02m Denver	DEN 13:23 → MSY 17:11UA 250	8h 06m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:47 → MSY 18:26DL 678	7h 54m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON