Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2405 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2405 MSY 10:41 → LGA 14:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1675 MSY 18:59 → LGA 23:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2405 Delta	MSY 10:41	LGA 14:44	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3215 Southwest	MSY 08:54	LGA 12:51	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1675 American	MSY 18:59	LGA 23:13	19%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON