Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 867 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 867 MSY 05:57 → MIA 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest MQ 3553 MSY 17:26 → MIA 20:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 867 American Flight history →	MSY 05:57	MIA 09:11	6%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 2566 American	MSY 10:33	MIA 13:45	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3553 Envoy	MSY 17:26	MIA 20:58	28%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON