tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1517 at 08:19, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1517 Southwest MSY 08:19 TPA 11:03 9% 2% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → TPA 15:51DL 1720 5h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:32 → ATL 07:55DL 1547 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 57m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 53m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 5h 24m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:12 → BNA 11:52WN 1146 2h 24m Nashville BNA 14:16 → TPA 17:05WN 1173 5h 53m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497 2h 10m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 7h 22m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457 6h 12m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:59 → ATL 19:32DL 3146 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 6h 30m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → MSY 17:06 → ATL 19:58F9 2052 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → TPA 22:45F9 3054 4h 39m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON