Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 33 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 927 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day B6 927 EWR 06:07 → MCO 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1268 EWR 15:24 → MCO 18:22 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:07	MCO 08:54	5%	1%	1.3%	90%
UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	6%	1%	1.3%	84%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	6%	2%	1.9%	90%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:52	MCO 08:38	7%	2%	1.3%	83%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	7%	2%	1.8%	89%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:46	MCO 10:47	8%	2%	0.9%	98%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:40	MCO 10:30	8%	2%	2.3%	no record
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	8%	2%	1.3%	78%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	9%	2%	1.8%	81%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	10%	3%	4.4%	80%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:43	MCO 10:34	10%	2%	1.8%	75%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:08	MCO 11:45	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	12%	4%	1.3%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	13%	3%	1.3%	76%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	13%	3%	2.2%	65%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:10	13%	4%	2.7%	69%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:12	MCO 13:04	14%	3%	1.8%	81%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	15%	5%	2.2%	81%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	16%	6%	4.4%	67%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:41	MCO 16:27	17%	6%	4.4%	75%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	19%	10%	3.2%	77%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	22%	10%	5.3%	59%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	23%	11%	2.1%	73%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	24%	10%	6.2%	62%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	24%	10%	6.8%	68%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	24%	7%	3.2%	76%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:30	MCO 21:19	25%	12%	5.3%	41%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:15	MCO 17:15	28%	9%	2.7%	no record
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:01	MCO 17:54	28%	8%	4.4%	60%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 14:56	MCO 17:39	30%	9%	5.1%	67%
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:50	MCO 21:34	31%	10%	2.7%	no record
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:24	MCO 18:22	35%	10%	2.7%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON