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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 64 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 17:01 → MIA 20:08 · 37% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 5% 2% 0.7% 95%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:31 MIA 08:45 5% 2% 0.7% 95%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 5% 2% 0.8% 82%
AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 5% 2% 0.8% 94%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 FLL 09:00 6% 2% 0.8% 85%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 6% 2% 0.8% 86%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 FLL 10:05 7% 2% 0.7% 92%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 7% 2% 0.8% 89%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 FLL 10:07 7% 2% 0.8% 88%
UA 1135 United EWR 07:01 MIA 10:11 8% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 8% 2% 0.8% 88%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 8% 2% 0.8% 81%
UA 2151 United EWR 08:43 FLL 12:29 9% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 9% 2% 0.7% 85%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:14 FLL 14:24 9% 2% 0.7% 80%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:35 FLL 10:40 9% 2% 0.8% 82%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 07:59 MIA 11:14 9% 2% 0.8% 86%
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 08:55 MIA 12:23 9% 2% 0.7% 97%
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 9% 3% 0.8% 93%
AA 968 American LGA 08:07 FLL 11:18 10% 2% 0.8% no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 11% 2% 0.7% 78%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 08:08 FLL 11:12 11% 2% 0.8% 80%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 12% 2% 0.8% 72%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:55 FLL 13:54 12% 2% 0.8% 75%
UA 2759 United EWR 11:53 FLL 15:13 12% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 12% 2% 0.8% 76%
AA 2378 American LGA 11:12 MIA 14:29 12% 3% 1.0% no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 13% 3% 0.8% 77%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:55 MIA 23:37 14% 7% 1.6% 70%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:58 FLL 23:28 14% 5% 1.2% 68%
UA 1998 United EWR 10:24 FLL 13:45 15% 3% 0.7% no record
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:24 FLL 11:29 15% 3% 0.8% 87%
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 12:07 MIA 15:23 15% 3% 0.9% 76%
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:31 MIA 14:38 15% 4% 0.9% 81%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:08 FLL 16:18 16% 4% 0.9% 81%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:00 FLL 15:10 16% 4% 0.9% 68%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:30 FLL 18:54 19% 5% 1.2% 75%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 FLL 22:52 19% 8% 1.3% 66%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 20% 9% 1.8% 74%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:10 MIA 18:53 21% 9% 1.2% 72%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 13:40 FLL 16:54 21% 6% 1.3% 61%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:55 MIA 23:22 22% 14% 1.8% 59%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:30 FLL 19:56 24% 8% 1.3% 66%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:32 FLL 21:45 24% 8% 1.3% 65%
AA 845 American LGA 19:11 MIA 22:13 24% 14% 2.1% no record
UA 791 United EWR 20:39 MIA 23:55 24% 11% 1.3% no record
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 20:50 FLL 23:59 24% 10% 1.8% 56%
UA 435 United EWR 19:39 FLL 22:55 25% 6% 1.0% no record
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 16:48 FLL 19:58 25% 10% 1.6% 52%
AA 1922 American JFK 21:16 MIA 00:01 26% 9% 1.3% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:59 MIA 18:30 26% 11% 1.3% 63%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:50 MIA 21:21 26% 14% 1.9% 58%
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 13:11 MIA 16:08 28% 6% 1.3% 68%
UA 8165 United EWR 17:36 FLL 20:37 30% 8% 1.2% no record
AA 2836 American LGA 16:41 FLL 19:36 30% 10% 1.8% no record
AA 2228 American JFK 16:00 MIA 19:04 31% 9% 1.2% no record
AA 2603 American Flight history → JFK 18:17 MIA 20:59 32% 10% 1.3% 66%
AA 3135 American Flight history → LGA 17:00 MIA 19:55 33% 13% 2.7% 63%
AA 3088 American Flight history → LGA 18:46 MIA 21:40 33% 14% 2.7% 35%
AA 642 American JFK 14:47 MIA 17:41 33% 10% 1.3% no record
AA 2525 American LGA 15:39 MIA 18:38 33% 12% 1.8% no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:28 FLL 18:30 33% 9% 1.3% 42%
UA 1498 United EWR 15:46 MIA 19:02 35% 11% 1.2% no record
AA 3016 American EWR 17:01 MIA 20:08 37% 14% 2.3% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON