Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:31 pm at Kahului); 4 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 1269 at 15:43, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 1269 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:43	LIH 16:30	15%	3%	0.5%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	3h 49m Honolulu	HNL 19:34 → LIH 20:27AS 1173	5h 23m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	OGG 14:34 → HNL 15:27AS 1135	3h 19m Honolulu	HNL 18:46 → LIH 19:39AS 1163	5h 05m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	OGG 16:29 → HNL 17:22AS 1165	3h 58m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → LIH 22:13AS 1183	5h 44m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	48m Honolulu	HNL 16:33 → LIH 17:26AS 1133	2h 22m	71%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON