Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3041 OGG 20:52 → SAN 05:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3224 OGG 21:58 → SAN 06:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 3041 Southwest	OGG 20:52	SAN 05:13	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 484 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 23:03	SAN 07:20	15%	6%	1.1%	76%
WN 3224 Southwest	OGG 21:58	SAN 06:09	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON