Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OO 3031 at 16:28, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3031 SkyWest	ONT 16:28	STS 17:55	11%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 41m Phoenix	PHX 10:11 → STS 12:27AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	ONT 15:27 → SEA 17:48AS 575	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 20:16 → STS 22:06AS 1330	6h 39m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → STS 13:34AS 1321	7h 32m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON