Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 616 ORD 13:18 → ATL 16:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:07	ATL 12:22	6%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	ATL 10:22	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	7%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:06	ATL 11:09	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:22	ATL 18:36	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:44	ATL 16:54	8%	2%	0.6%	72%
UA 2779 United	ORD 12:40	ATL 15:45	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	9%	3%	0.5%	75%
AA 639 American	ORD 06:48	ATL 09:57	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 18:54	ATL 21:56	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 851 American	ORD 10:15	ATL 13:15	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	14%	4%	0.5%	58%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 10:11	ATL 13:19	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:01	ATL 16:14	15%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 2096 American	ORD 16:29	ATL 19:42	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3114 American	ORD 19:15	ATL 22:18	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:41	ATL 22:45	18%	7%	0.9%	62%
AA 616 American	ORD 13:18	ATL 16:20	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON