Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1186 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1186 ORD 06:05 → BOS 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 407 ORD 18:39 → BOS 22:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1186 United Flight history →	ORD 06:05	BOS 09:29	5%	1%	0.5%	92%
DL 2828 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:59	BOS 10:30	5%	1%	0.6%	87%
AA 3067 American	ORD 06:49	BOS 10:39	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1012 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 00:06	BOS 03:46	6%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 659 United	ORD 07:50	BOS 11:19	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3022 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	BOS 09:34	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1365 United	ORD 00:05	BOS 03:34	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1367 United	ORD 09:24	BOS 12:54	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
B6 112 JetBlue	ORD 09:43	BOS 13:21	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:28	BOS 13:59	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
UA 1606 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	BOS 14:07	8%	3%	0.5%	82%
AA 802 American	ORD 09:02	BOS 12:37	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2578 American	ORD 10:30	BOS 14:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1779 United Flight history →	ORD 21:41	BOS 01:14	12%	4%	0.5%	68%
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:19	BOS 18:59	12%	4%	0.6%	62%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:25	BOS 23:00	13%	4%	0.6%	65%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	ORD 12:15	BOS 15:49	15%	4%	0.6%	50%
UA 2401 United	ORD 13:23	BOS 16:54	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2682 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	BOS 00:05	16%	5%	0.6%	62%
UA 1928 United	ORD 15:58	BOS 19:32	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 487 United	ORD 15:27	BOS 18:58	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2331 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BOS 21:56	18%	5%	0.5%	59%
AA 3107 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	BOS 23:06	18%	5%	0.6%	56%
AA 2294 American	ORD 15:09	BOS 18:41	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1162 American	ORD 16:43	BOS 20:17	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 407 American Flight history →	ORD 18:39	BOS 22:15	20%	6%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON