Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2112 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 ORD 07:15 → CHS 10:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4664 ORD 14:31 → CHS 17:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	ORD 07:15	CHS 10:39	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2631 United	ORD 10:28	CHS 13:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3868 Envoy	ORD 15:54	CHS 19:00	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2154 American	ORD 09:50	CHS 13:06	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 823 American	ORD 22:02	CHS 01:10	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	15%	5%	0.6%	63%
UA 4664 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:31	CHS 17:52	18%	5%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON