Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2759 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2759 ORD 05:02 → EWR 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time Riskiest AA 3253 ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 05:02	EWR 08:20	5%	2%	0.7%	47%
UA 3924 United	ORD 06:06	EWR 09:22	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2659 United	ORD 06:06	EWR 09:18	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 699 American	ORD 06:45	EWR 10:13	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1273 United	ORD 07:47	EWR 10:55	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2238 United	ORD 09:11	EWR 12:22	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:11	EWR 15:39	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	EWR 00:53	13%	4%	0.7%	68%
UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	13%	4%	0.7%	65%
UA 1236 United	ORD 15:18	EWR 18:35	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2416 American	ORD 10:05	EWR 13:12	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	19%	5%	0.8%	45%
UA 2466 United	ORD 15:00	EWR 18:09	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 16:57	EWR 20:07	22%	4%	0.6%	70%
UA 249 United	ORD 15:52	EWR 19:01	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	23%	5%	0.8%	65%
UA 2790 United	ORD 17:53	EWR 21:04	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	25%	6%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON