Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3358 at 09:39 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3358 ORD 09:39 → FSD 11:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5359 ORD 16:27 → FSD 18:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3358 Envoy	ORD 09:39	FSD 11:21	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3890 Envoy	ORD 12:26	FSD 14:08	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 00:01	FSD 01:33	11%	4%	0.6%	50%
UA 4597 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 09:01	FSD 10:49	13%	3%	0.7%	68%
UA 1842 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	FSD 23:31	15%	8%	0.6%	60%
OO 4992 SkyWest	ORD 16:39	FSD 18:31	15%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 5645 SkyWest	ORD 12:42	FSD 14:26	19%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 5359 SkyWest	ORD 16:27	FSD 18:13	19%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON