Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: OO 5604 at 07:22, 11%.

Safest bet that day OO 5604 ORD 07:22 → JAX 11:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3173 ORD 19:13 → JAX 22:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:22	JAX 11:04	11%	3%	2.2%	no record
UA 1113 United	ORD 10:09	JAX 13:33	18%	3%	6.2%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:43	JAX 18:07	22%	4%	10.4%	80%
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:30	JAX 22:00	26%	7%	5.3%	no record
UA 1284 United	ORD 15:53	JAX 19:23	26%	6%	6.2%	no record
AA 3173 American	ORD 19:13	JAX 22:37	30%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON